In August, Fiji shocked a less than capacity crowd at Twickenham by not just beating England but basically running them off the pitch. Even following this monumental victory, Rafters was hesitant to believe, so we picked Australia and Wales to advance to the World Cup Quarterfinals from Pool C.
It’s not that Rafters didn’t consider Fiji as a contender. We did. In our original notes, Wales is scratched out and Fiji written in their place as the runners-up. A day later it was Fiji with a line scratched through it, and so it went for three iterations until we finally settled on Wales as the final choice prior to the beginning of the tournament back in September.
Rafters’ rationale back then.
My default pick two years ago would have been Australia with Wales as the runners-up, but after Fiji’s performance at Twickenham two weeks ago, they could ruin someone’s world cup aspirations…. [but] they won’t have the legs to finish the tournament strong. (Rafters September 06, 2023).
It never occurred to Rafters that Wales could win Pool C or that Australia would be watching the elimination stages from home. Their loss to Fiji by a converted try certainly ruined the Wallabies’ World Cup aspirations.
The notion of Fiji fading at the end of the tournament is still a valid one, and the loss to Portugal is an exemplar of that idea.
Despite the loss, Fiji advanced to the elimination stage, but if they’d allowed Portugal one more converted try, it would be the Fijians enjoying tropical breezes while they watched the semis from home rather than the Wallabies.
So now Fiji has come full circle. Their runner-up seed pits them against a still struggling English side in quarterfinal three, a rematch of August’s game at Twickenham.
Both England and Fiji flailed in matches they should have handily won last week in round five, but the advantage in the quarterfinal goes to an England team with more depth and far more experience when it comes to drawn-out tournament play. And Rafters still maintains that ball control magic can only carry the Fijians so far, and that is no farther than Sunday’s quarterfinal.
That’s one fan’s view of Rugby from Beyond the Rafters.
After Round five
Pool A - Round Five match predictions and results.
New Zealand 73
Uruguay 00
Rafters’ round five prediction - New Zealand over Uruguay forty-seven.
France 60
Italy 07
Rafters’ round five prediction - France over Italy forty six.
Namibia - Bye.
Pool B - Round Five match predictions and results.
Ireland 36
Scotland. 14
Rafters’ round five prediction - Ireland over Scotland by twenty eight.
Tonga. 45
Romania. 24
Rafters’ round five prediction - Tonga over Romania by fifty.
South Africa - Bye.
Pool C - Round Five match predictions and results.
Fiji. 23
Portugal 24
Rafters’ round five prediction - Fiji over Portugal by thirty one.
Wales. 43
Georgia. 19
Rafters’ round five prediction - Wales over Georgia by twelve.
Australia - Bye.
Pool D - Round Five match predictions and results.
England. 18
Samoa. 17
Rafters’ round five prediction - England by twenty three over Samoa.
Argentina. 39
Japan. 27
Rafters’ round five prediction - Argentina over Japan by ten.
Chile - Bye.
The Quarterfinals
Quarter Final Number One (Pool C winner v Pool D runner Up).
Quarterfinal Saturday October 14 - Wales v Argentina.
Rafter’s pre-tournament call - (England v Australia).
Quarter Final Number Two (Pool B winner v Pool A runner Up).
Quarterfinal Saturday October 14 - Ireland v New Zealand.
Rafter’s pre-tournament call - (Ireland v New Zealand).
Quarter Final Number Three ( Pool D Winner v Pool C Runner Up).
Quarterfinal Sunday October 15 - England v Fiji.
Rafter’s pre-tournament call - (Argentina v Wales).
Quarter Final Number Four (Pool A winner v Pool B runner up)
Quarterfinal Sunday October 15 - France v South Africa.
Rafter’s pre-tournament call - (France V South Africa).