World Cup Predictions
Predicting the results of the Rugby World Cup two months in advance of the final is likely to result in the same accuracy of a meteorologist predicting the temperature at midnight on January first.
Sure there is some history to guide us, but the rugby world which has seen consistent winners and losers in the past is in the midst of turbulent storms, especially considering the matches leading up to the 2023 World Cup.
Regardless, Rafters is heading out on a thin prognostical limb in a category five hurricane to pick winners. Let’s get right to the executive summary and then dive into the details.
Ireland will win the World Cup and Argentina will take home the Bronze.
Like our hypothetical meteorologist, Rafters will be standing by in the storm center to update our rugby forecast as data comes in, but for now, let’s walk through how we arrived at our predictions by working backwards from Pool D.
Pool D
Pool D is the weakest of the four pools. England, the presumptive winner when the draws were held, is flailing, and there is even talk about them losing to Japan especially after the disaster against Fiji at Twickenham two weeks ago.
Conversely, Argentina has emerged from the Rugby Championship as a contender, and unlike the Italians in the Six Nations, are no longer the tournament’s whipping boys.
Three years ago Los Pumas would run out of gas at around the sixtieth minute and opponents routinely ran up the score at the end of the match. Not so any more. Argentina is as fit as any tier one nation and can play to the final whistle, which is while they will win Pool D and England if they are lucky will be the runners-up.
Pool D Round One match predictions
Argentina over England by five points.
Japan over Chile by twenty-two points.
Samoa - Bye.
Pool C
As with Pool D, Pool C is not particularly a competitive pool for winning the World Cup, but given that the grouping is more evenly matched, it should make for the most entertaining and competitive play of all four draws. It also makes this pool more difficult to pick and has the most potential for upsets.
My default pick two years ago would have been Australia with Wales as the runners-up, but after Fiji’s performance at Twickenham two weeks ago, they could ruin someones world cup aspirations.
Despite a well played match against Wales last fall, defeating England at Twickenham, and that amazing, Fijian ball-control magic they won’t have the legs to finish the tournament strong.
Though Rafters would love to see some new blood in the quarters this year, we are sticking with our gut. Australia wins the pool, and Wales follows as the runners-up.
Pool C Round One match predictions
Australia easily over Georgia by seventeen.
Fiji by two over Wales.
Portugal - Bye.
Pool B
With three top-tier teams (South Africa, Ireland, and Scotland), Pool B is the toughest to call. South Africa is coming off a record trouncing of New Zealand at Twickenham two weeks ago and will be hoping for a repeat tournament win.
The current Ireland team is the best by far, but even with strong teams, they have often underperformed in the World Cup, but not this time.
On Scotland’s best day they could beat either Ireland or South Africa, but it is doubtful that they will have four best days in September and October. They will likely play the role of spoiler that decides who the runner up will be and who wins the pool.
Ireland take the pool, and South Africa will be the runners-up.
Pool B Round One match predictions
Ireland smokes Romania by fifty-two
South Africa over Scotland by four.
Tonga - Bye.
Pool A
Pool A is a pool divided. Two powerhouse contenders, New Zealand and tournament host France, will dominate the draw. The real question is the quarterfinal seeding.
Even with New Zealand’s pathetic performance against South Africa two weeks ago, Italy, Uruguay, and Namibia have no hopes of defeating the All Blacks or France, but the minnow nations will have a real chance to test themselves against each other, which should make for some interesting rugby.
The winner of the tournament’s opening match will determine the pool’s winner. Rafters is thinking France with New Zealand as the runners-up.
Pool A Round One match predictions
France over New Zealand in the tournament opener by seven.
Italy over Namibia by Twenty-four.
Uruguay - Bye.
Since we’ve gone this far, let’s take it through the final.
The Quarterfinals
Quarterfinal Number One
(Pool D Winner v Pool C Runner Up).
England v Australia - Call Rafters a homer, but England advances to Semifinal Number One.
Quarterfinal Number Two
(Pool B Winner v Pool A Runner Up).
Ireland v New Zealand - Under the current conditions, Ireland advances to Semifinal Number One
Quarter Final Number Three
(Pool D Winner v Pool B Runner Up).
Argentina v Wales - Rafters had a tough time with deciding between Wales or Fiji for the Runner up slot, but either way, Argentina takes the win and moves on to Semifinal Number Two.
Quarterfinal Number Four
(Pool A winner v Pool B runner up)
France V South Africa - Rafters gives the host nation and strong home team support the edge over the defending World Cup Champions, and France moves on to Semifinal Number Two.
The Semis
Semifinal Number One
England v Ireland - Unlike England’s upset of New Zealand four years ago in Japan, there is no hope for them against Ireland in 2023. England goes to the Bronze final and Ireland advances to the final.
Semifinal Number Two
Argentina v France - Though Argentina has been finishing matches well, they’ll fade in the semifinal. France advances to the final, and Argentina drops into the match for third place.
Bronze Final
England v Argentina - The only reason that England will even be here is because of a relatively easy path to third place. Rafters expects a tough match, but Argentina will walk with the hardware.
World Cup Final
Ireland v. France - By now readers will know where Rafters is going, and of course this is the easy prediction, the home team verses the number one ranked team, but Rafters didn’t see much of a path for anyone else to play in the Championship.
This will be a brutal match, but Ireland will come up on top by the thinest of margins to hoist the World Cup Trophy in October.
And that’s one man’s view of the World Cup from beyond the rafters.