Rafters’ formula for Premiership predictions is a trade secret, and while the ingredients can be extrapolated, the precise measurements will remain forever a mystery, even to Rafters.
But in general, we prepare our prognostications by projecting player pizzazz, present position, and past performance. Throw in a generous measure of Quins bias, fold in a scoop of animosity (towards certain teams), and add a pinch (but not too much) of cynicism.
Stir vigorously. Let stand over night.
On Friday night, set the oven to game temperature and slow roast over the weekend until Sunday evening. With luck our souffle will rise to the heights of Rafters’ ego, reveal our genius, so we can bow to thunderous applause.
But after the five matches this weekend, the only thing Rafters will be eating for breakfast this morning is humble pie washed down with a pint of bitters.
Rugby Premiership Round Nineteen
Friday, March 3, 2023
Bristol Bears host Northampton Saints
Rafters Prediction: Northampton bonus point win under the lights.
Result: How much more wrong could Rafters have been?
If fans had only watched the first twenty minutes of Friday night’s match at Ashton Gate, they might have guessed that the physical battle that held the score deadlocked at three all would continue for the remaining sixty minutes.
There was nothing to indicate that Harry Randall’s line break for the Bear’s first try in the twentieth minute might somehow fracture the Saint’s defense let alone shatter it. Thirty seconds of game time later the Bears crossed the try line again, but the score was disallowed. It didn’t matter.
Two minutes after the disallowed try, the Bears scored again. The rout was on. Bristol ran up nine total trys in sixty minutes to humiliate the Saints.
Northampton did crossed the try line once in the second half (unconverted), but it was clear that no miraculous comeback was in the offing or for that matter, anything close to a rally that might make the score somewhat respectable.
The Bears came out of no where to win their largest margin of victory in their Premiership history.
Bristol Bears 62
Northampton Saints 08
Saturday, March 4, 2023
Leicester Tigers hosts Bath Rugby
Rafters Prediction: Tigers with a bonus point win.
Result: Nothing revealed by a CT scan could identify the source of our soft spot for Bath Rugby, and Rafter’s held out hope for a strong performance from Bath on Saturday.
Despite the loss, Bath managed to secure a try bonus point, but still sit at the bottom of the table, all but mathematically eliminated from the top four.
For Leicester, Mike Brown once agin proved himself a worthwhile addition to the team. Brown has lost a step and was chased down from behind on a line break, but the skill and smarts he brings to the Tigers more than makes up for a slight loss of step. (Brown’s line break did result in a Tigers try a few phases later.)
Leicester Tigers 48
Bath Rugby. 27
Harlequins host Exeter Chiefs
Rafters Prediction: Though Rafters is hesitant to predict a Harlequins victory in what we expect to be a high scoring match, but Quins win their first since December and move past Exeter in the standings.
Result: Rafters has been tough on the Harlequins during the past five weeks and rightly so. But imagine our partisan delight with the result of Big Game 14 at Twickenham.
The Chiefs seemed to have no answer for Marcus Smith, Joe Marler, and Joe Marchant’s reunion with their Quins teammates on the big stage of Twickenham, and the Quins played like a team with championship aspirations.
Rafters isn’t sure what magic formula brewed up such a dominant performance from a team that had lost five straight, but for the Quins faithful, including your humble corespondent, the Harlequins performance on Saturday reignites hopes that the team can compete and is capable of reaching and perhaps winning this May.
Rafters note to self - Don’t get too excited.
Sunday, March 5, 2023
Newcastle Falcons hosts London Irish
Rafters Prediction: The Irish’s free-style offense runs up the score with a bonus point.
Result: Not much of a surprise here other than Rafters thought that Newcastle would have performed better at home.
The Exiles continue their steady climb up the Premiership table to number five and clearly intend to stake a claim to one of the top four spots in May.
Newcastle Falcons 19
London Irish 34
Sale Sharks host Saracens
Rafters Prediction: Sale wins at home and Saracens go home with a losing bonus point.
Result: Without the starters, Rafters still contends that this match was a nothing burger. Both Sale and Saracens will finish the last five weeks of the season strong and continue to dominate once the Six Nations Trophy is awarded.
Sharks win the not so much preview of the Premiership Final by eleven.
Sale Sharks 35
Saracens 24
That’s our corner of the big picture and one fan’s view from beyond the rafters.
Afters
If you are interested in watching the Six Nations and Premiership Rugby in the United States (live or replays), you can stream all the matches on Peacock. Xfinity includes Peacock with some cable subscriptions.
Flo Rugby offers replays of the Autumn Internationals, USA Rugby, the Rugby Championships, and Super Rugby.
The Rugby Network broadcasts the MLR for no charge,
Fine Print
Other than a customer, Rafters is not affiliated with any league, team, or streaming/cable service.